Problema 2 · Economia de L'empresa UPF Setembre 2012
Tema: Decisió econòmica racional i biaixos · Del examen Setembre (2012)
Enunciado
Short Question 2 (6 points). Ex-Ante Rationality vs. Outcome Bias
A renowned football manager, universally praised for his tactical acumen and winning record, chose not to include the three players considered the team's best in a crucial match, despite all three being fully fit to play. Fans and commentators widely criticized this lineup choice as an obvious blunder. Nonetheless, the squad delivered a resounding 6–0 victory. In light of this final score, can we definitively deduce that the manager's initial decision was correct? Indicate whether this statement is True or False and substantiate your position.
True
False
Solución
Según los criterios oficiales de corrección
In light of this final score, can we definitively deduce that the manager's initial decision was correct? Indicate whether this statement is True or False
Solución: False
Substantiate your position.
Solución: Judging a decision strictly by its realized outcome reflects outcome bias. Under uncertainty, choices must be evaluated ex-ante based on available information and expected utility rather than ex-post results, since random noise or chance can cause a bad ex-ante decision to produce a favorable outcome.
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