Part 1 - Question 2.c - IS-LM-PC model · Introducció a la Macroeconomia UPF 2018

Tema: Model IS-LM-PC: del curt al mig termini · Del examen Final Exam - April 2018 (2018)

Enunciado

Labor market, Phillips Curve, and IS-LM-PC model

Carefully analyze the article published in The New York Times (February 2018) under the headline “The Stock Market Is Worried About Inflation. Should It Be?” and answer the questions below.

c. Consider the excerpt:

"The unemployment rate is already low, and the new tax cut may push economic growth even higher. Wall Street knows that if Fed officials think inflation is poised to exceed its 2 percent target, they will raise interest rates to try to stop that from happening."

a. Using the IS-LM-PC framework, show analytically and graphically how a tax reduction stimulates output beyond potential and impacts inflation. State the three structural equations of the model.

b. Use the IS-LM-PC framework to depict the policy response implemented by the Federal Reserve to avert an acceleration in inflation.

Enunciado: Part 1 - Question 2.c - IS-LM-PC model · Introducció a la Macroeconomia UPF 2018

Solución

Según los criterios oficiales de corrección

a. State the three structural equations of the model and show analytically and graphically how a tax reduction stimulates output beyond potential and impacts inflation.

Solución: 1. IS relation: Y=C(Y−T)+I(Y,r+x)+GY = C(Y - T) + I(Y, r + x) + G 2. LM relation (monetary policy rule): r=rˉr = \bar{r} 3. PC relation: π−πˉ=αL(Y−Yn)\pi - \bar{\pi} = \frac{\alpha}{L}(Y - Y_n) A tax cut (ΔT<0\Delta T < 0) raises disposable income and consumption, shifting the IS curve rightward. At the policy rate rˉ\bar{r}, short-run output expands above potential (Y>YnY > Y_n), generating a positive output gap that drives inflation above target (π−πˉ>0\pi - \bar{\pi} > 0).

b. Use the IS-LM-PC framework to depict the policy response implemented by the Federal Reserve to avert an acceleration in inflation.

Solución: The Fed raises the policy rate from rˉ\bar{r} to rˉ′\bar{r}', shifting the LM line upward. Higher borrowing costs decrease investment and consumption, moving the economy along IS′IS' back to potential output Y=YnY = Y_n, which stabilizes inflation at target πˉ\bar{\pi}.

Graphical depiction of the IS-LM-PC framework for the tax cut and central bank reaction.

Solución: Top panel (IS-LM): YY on horizontal axis, rr on vertical axis. Initial equilibrium at (Yn,rˉ)(Y_n, \bar{r}). Tax cut shifts IS rightward to IS′IS', increasing output to Y>YnY > Y_n. Fed raises rate to rˉ′\bar{r}', shifting LM upward to LM′LM', restoring output to YnY_n. Bottom panel (PC): YY on horizontal axis, π−πˉ\pi - \bar{\pi} on vertical axis. Upward-sloping PC passing through (Yn,0)(Y_n, 0). When Y>YnY > Y_n, π−πˉ>0\pi - \bar{\pi} > 0; when Fed contracts back to YnY_n, π−πˉ=0\pi - \bar{\pi} = 0.

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